Oscar Predictions

++ = will win
+ = could win
* = dark horse


-Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role-
Penelope Cruz – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air +*
Mo’Nique – Precious ++

Honestly there really is no doubt whatsoever that Mo'Nique is going to win this, but Anna Kendrick is a close and admirable second.

-Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role-
Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger *
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones +
Cristoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds ++

Again, no question it's going to be Christoph Waltz, but the other two actors have garnered a lot of praise for their work in those films.

-Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role-
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side ++
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education *
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia +

I do believe Sandra Bullock will win, but this is one category where an upset would not be that surprising. Even though she hasn't won any major awards, people are still talking very seriously about Carey Mulligan in An Education.

-Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role-
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart ++
George Clooney – Up in the Air +
Colin Firth – A Single Man *
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker *

Frankly I'm just pleased to see that Jeremy Renner got the nomination. I definitely think it will be Jeff Bridges, but there's a lot of buzz about all of these actors (Except Freeman who's there just because he's Morgan Freeman)

-Best Original Screenplay-
The Hurt Locker by Mark Boal +
Inglourious Basterds by Quentin Tarantino ++
The Messenger by Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man by Joel and Ethan Coen
Up by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy *

I'll be pissed if Basterds doesn't win this. As someone who is not a huge Tarantino person, I have never encountered film writing like this before. It will be kind of a travesty if it loses.

-Best Adapted Screenplay-
District 9 by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education by Nick Hornby *
In the Loop by (a whole bunch of people I don’t feel like listing)
Precious by Geoffrey Fletcher +
Up in the Air by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner ++

It pains me to say it but it's totally going to be Jason Reitman. The other two have some buzz but it'll take a miracle for them to pull an upset.

-Best Cinematography-
Avatar ++
The White Ribbon +
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds *

It really depends on how the Academy wants to define cinematography. Considering the entire world of Pandora is CGI, I can see why it might not win, but still, that whole movie is based on its visuals so it'd be sort of a kick in the balls for it not to win (not that I wouldn't like to see James Cameron get kicked in the balls)

-Best Editing-
Avatar
District 9 *
The Hurt Locker ++
Inglourious Basterds +
Precious

I really don't think Avatar will win for editing, all the special effects and other technical stuff, yes, but the tension created in Hurt Locker, Basterds, and District 9 is all about the editing, which was superb on all counts.

-Best Art Direction-
Avatar ++
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus *
Nine +
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Definitely going to be Avatar, but Parnassus and Nine are a bit more old school type of art direction so it's conceivable they'll head in that direction like they have in the past.

-Best Costume Design-
Bright Star *
Coco before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus +
Nine
The Young Victoria ++

I suppose if Bright Star is only going to get one effing nomination, it may as well be for costume design. Even though it deserved so much more. Young Victoria is the kind of period piece they lose their shit over so that will probably win, but who knows.

-Best Animated Film-
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox *
The Princess and the Frog +
The Secret of Kells
Up ++

It's interesting that this is the first year that the other animation studios have really stepped up their game, perhaps to end Pixar's long reign over this category. I would not be at all surprised if Princess or Fox pulls an upset here.

-Best Foreign Film-
Ajami (Israel)
The White Ribbon (Germany) ++
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
A Prophet (France) +*
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)

I honestly do not understand at all how the submission guidelines work for Foreign Films. If they had any type of sense, Broken Embraces would be on this list, but tragically it is not. That is some bullshit. But I do really want to see The White Ribbon.

-Best Director-
Kathryn Bigelow ++
James Cameron +
Lee Daniels
Jason Reitman
Quentin Tarantino *

Let me first say that I am not predicting a Bigelow win just because I want that to happen with every last fiber of my being, I genuinely think it will happen. She's already won the CCA and the DGA, both very big deals, and let's face it the GG kind of suck at predicting the Oscars lately. I really think she can do it. Not to mention, if James Cameron wins I might vomit.

-Best Picture-
Avatar +
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker ++
Inglourious Basterds *
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

This one I'm not 100% sure about. I do think The Hurt Locker has the best chance of winning, simply given the trend of winners over the last few years (gritty reality-based dramas). If Avatar wins it will be a HUGE shift in Academy tastes and I frankly don't know if I see that happening just yet. That said, it is totally conceivable that Inglourious Basterds could win given that it won the SAG award, which has predicted some pretty incredible upsets over the last 15 years.


So yeah...I think those are the only awards anyone really cares about.